Briefing on the foresight of the two sessions

On 30 December, the NPC Standing Committee voted to adopt the decision on convening the first session of the 14th NPC. According to the decision, the first session of the 14th National People's Congress was held in Beijing on March 5, 2023. The 13th CPPCC National Committee recently held a chairman's meeting and recommended that the first session of the 14th CPPCC National Committee be held in Beijing on March 4, 2023. Our institute focuses on the development and current situation of China's economic work, and makes forward-looking and brief reports on various topics during the two sessions. Economic work deployment in 2023 Summarize the economic work in 2022

In the face of the stormy international environment and the arduous tasks of domestic reform, development and stability, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, the whole party and the people of all ethnic groups throughout the country have faced difficulties, forged ahead, coordinated the overall situation at home and abroad, coordinated epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, coordinated development and security, increased macro-control efforts, coped with the impact of unexpected factors, steadily improved the quality of development, achieved fruitful achievements in scientific and technological innovation, comprehensively deepened reform and opening up, basically stabilized employment prices, and food security. Energy security and people's livelihood have been effectively guaranteed, and overall economic and social stability has been maintained. The 10 years of the new era is a decade in which China's economic and social development has made historic achievements, undergone historic changes, and shifted to high-quality development. We have historically solved the problem of absolute poverty, built a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way as scheduled, and stood at a new and higher historical starting point for China's development.

Current economic situation The important problem of the current economic work is that the foundation of China's economic recovery is not yet solid, the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock, and expected weakening is still large, and the external environment is turbulent, which has deepened the impact on China's economy. From the current point of view, the demand for domestic investment and consumption is generally weak and there is a risk of continued downward movement, there is huge uncertainty in international global economic growth, and the United States even has a risk of recession, which will inevitably affect the growth of China's imports and exports, and must be prepared and planned in advance. Economic work deployment in 2023 The Central Economic Work Conference requires that in 2023, we should adhere to the principle of steadiness and progress, adhere to and improve the basic socialist economic system, adhere to the direction of socialist market economic reform, adhere to the "two unwavering", continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, increase the intensity of macro policy regulation and control, strengthen the coordination and cooperation of various policies, and form a joint force to jointly promote high-quality development. Active fiscal policy should be intensified to improve efficiency. Maintain the necessary fiscal expenditure intensity, optimize tools such as portfolio deficits, special bonds, and interest discounts, and ensure fiscal sustainability and controllable local government debt risks while effectively supporting high-quality development. It is necessary to increase the intensity of transfer payments from the central government to local governments, promote the sinking of financial resources, and do a good job in the "three guarantees" work at the grassroots level. Prudent monetary policy should be precise and powerful. It is necessary to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, keep the growth rate of broad money supply and social financing scale basically matching the growth rate of nominal economy, and guide financial institutions to increase support for small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation, green development and other fields. Maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, and strengthen the financial stability guarantee system. Industrial policy should be developed and safe. Optimize the implementation methods of industrial policies, pay close attention to the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries and the cultivation and growth of strategic emerging industries, focus on strengthening the weak links of the industrial chain, and forge new industrial competitive advantages in the process of implementing the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Promote a virtuous cycle of "science and technology-industry-finance".

2023 Economic Work Strategic Goals The economic work in 2023 is full of many things. We must proceed from the strategic overall situation, start with improving social psychological expectations and boost development confidence, and do a good job. Efforts to expand domestic demand Today, consumption has become the primary driving force of China's economic growth, and the proportion of final consumption expenditure in GDP has remained above 50% for 11 consecutive years. Last year, final consumption expenditure contributed 65.4% to economic growth. Therefore, the recovery of consumption is of great significance to promoting domestic demand and stabilizing growth. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, my country's consumption-led domestic demand development pattern has basically taken shape. Affected by the epidemic in recent years, consumption has also been hit the hardest, but it is also the field with the most room and potential for expanding domestic demand next year. To meet the economic growth target, we must further increase efforts to boost consumption and increase residents' confidence in consumption. Prioritize the recovery and expansion of consumption, requiring enhanced consumption capacity, improved consumption conditions, innovative consumption scenarios, increased income of urban and rural residents through multiple channels, and support for consumption such as housing improvement, new energy vehicles, and elderly care services. Accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system and promote high-quality development The Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2022 will speed up the construction of a modern industrial system as one of the key tasks in the future. This reflects the strategic orientation of insisting on focusing on the development of the economy on the real economy and also focuses on the high-quality development of the current industry. Key tasks that need to be addressed. The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that it is necessary to enhance the status and competitiveness of traditional industries in the global industrial division of labor, and at the same time accelerate the research and development and application of cutting-edge technologies such as new energy, artificial intelligence, bio-manufacturing, green and low-carbon, and quantum computing. The idea of "two-wheel drive" for strategic emerging industries. Starting from the essential requirements of realizing Chinese-style modernization, combining long and short, consolidating traditional advantages, reshaping new competitive advantages, taking the security of the industrial chain as the benchmark, taking the advanced industrial structure as the guide, and taking the new industrial model as the direction, to accelerate the construction Adapt to the new ecology of high-quality development of the industry. Implement the equal treatment of state-owned enterprises and private enterprises in terms of system and law The coordinated development and mutual promotion of the public-owned economy and the private economy are the unique institutional advantages of our country. It is of great significance for stabilizing market expectations and boosting market confidence to put down the requirement of equal treatment of state-owned and private enterprises from the system and law. my country's economic scale is huge, demand diversity is strong, and enterprises of various ownerships have a broad market space. The key is to establish a perfect institutional environment for fair competition. This is an important practice and manifestation of improving the modernization of the national governance system and governance capabilities. This is conducive to further unifying understanding, raising awareness, and clarifying misunderstandings, and will play a very positive role in boosting the confidence of market players. Greater efforts to attract and utilize foreign capital It is necessary to promote high-level opening up to the outside world and improve the quality and level of trade and investment cooperation. It is necessary to expand market access and increase the opening-up of the modern service industry. It is necessary to implement national treatment for foreign-funded enterprises, ensure that foreign-funded enterprises equally participate in government procurement, bidding, and standard formulation in accordance with the law, and increase the protection of intellectual property rights and the legitimate rights and interests of foreign investment. It is necessary to actively promote the joining of high-standard economic and trade agreements such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement and the Digital Economic Partnership Agreement, actively compare relevant rules, regulations, management, and standards, and deepen domestic reforms in related fields. It is necessary to provide the greatest degree of convenience for foreign businessmen to come to China to engage in trade and investment negotiations, and promote the construction of landmark projects with foreign capital. Effectively prevent and defuse major economic and financial risks It is necessary to ensure the stable development of the real estate market, do a good job in ensuring the delivery of buildings, people's livelihood, and stability, meet the reasonable financing needs of the industry, promote industry restructuring and mergers, effectively prevent and defuse the risks of high-quality leading real estate companies, and improve the assets and liabilities. We must resolutely crack down on illegal and criminal activities in accordance with the law. To promote the smooth transition of the real estate industry to a new development model, it is necessary to prevent and resolve financial risks, consolidate the responsibilities of all parties, and prevent the formation of regional and systemic financial risks. Strengthen the Party Central Committee's centralized and unified leadership over financial work. It is necessary to prevent and resolve the risk of local government debt, resolutely curb the increase and resolve the stock. Provincial GDP growth targets for 2023 Our country regards "expanding domestic demand" as the first item of the key direction of economic work in 2023, and emphasizes that "recovering and expanding consumption should be given priority." In addition, the weighted GDP growth target of the provinces and cities of the local two sessions this year is 5.6%. Therefore, during the two sessions, we can focus on the formulation of the 2023 growth target of the two sessions.

Source: Local government official website, local statistics bureau, Beijing Xinke Financial Development Research Institute With the convening of the two sessions of each province, the GDP growth targets of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in 2023 have been announced. In general, the target growth rate of GDP in 2023 is generally concentrated at around 6%, and the target growth rate of each province is revised down from 2022 as a whole. Among the 31 provinces, 21 provinces lowered the target growth rate, Shanghai, Hunan, Jiangxi, Inner Mongolia, Tibet and Jilin 5 provinces maintained the target growth rate, and only 4 provinces Hainan, Chongqing, Xinjiang and Heilongjiang raised the target growth rate. The overall downward revision of the target growth rate reflects the cautious attitude of the provinces in the face of the critical transition phase of full post-pandemic economic recovery, and the expected increase in headwinds. Summary 2023 has entered the post-epidemic era, and China's economy is gradually recovering from the impact of the epidemic. With the gradual implementation and continuous improvement of the steady growth policies of the central and local governments at all levels, the overall economic environment is improving, and China's GDP growth is expected to reach between 5% and 6% in 2023. At the same time, the lagging impact and cumulative effect of this stable growth policy will be more reflected next year. With the weakening of the impact of the epidemic and the gradual recovery of market confidence, the backlog of consumer demand will be gradually released, the domestic consumption scenario will recover steadily, and service consumption and contact consumption are expected to be significantly boosted. This year's economic recovery will emphasize the recovery of consumption, and consumption may become the "main engine" of economic growth. In general, with the joint efforts of the liberalization of the epidemic and the steady growth policy, coupled with the low base effect caused by China's low GDP growth rate in 2022, it is expected that China's economic operation will improve as a whole in 2023, and the recovery trend will be obvious. But at the same time, given the scarring effect of the three-year pandemic, the economic recovery in 2023 will not overheat, but will be a gradual and slow restorative recovery.